Reaching 50 Million U.S. Members

In the 11 years between January 1, 1987 and January 1, 1998, U.S. health club membership grew from 13.7 to 22.5 million members (Figure 6.1). This represents a total growth of 64.2% and a compound growth rate of 4.61%. Assuming that the U.S. health club membership will reach at least 25 million members by December 31, 1999, the industry will have grown from 13.7 million members on January 1, 1987 to 25 million members by December 31, 1999 (Figure 6.2). This denotes an increase of 82.5% in 13 years and a compound growth rate of 4.74%.

For the U.S. health club industry to reach at least 50 million members by January 1, 2010, the industry will need to increase its compound growth rate from 4.74% to 7.30%

1987 to 1999 4.74% (actual) 2000 to 2010 7.3% (projected)

When we consider that the industry's membership growth rate was 8.9% in 1996 and 8.1% in 1997, achieving a decade-long compound growth rate of 7.30% appears to be a challenging but realistic goal. The challenge will be to maintain the momentum that the industry now enjoys through the inevitable economic ups and downs of the decade ahead.

As of January 1, 1998, the health and fitness center industry in the U.S. was composed of approxi- mately 28,000 facilities, 14,100 of which are listed as health clubs in the Yellow Pages of the nation's telephone directories.* These 14,100 facilities include all tax-paying commercial health club facilities (approximately 12,000), as well as approximately 2,000 YMCAs and YWCAs which are also listed under "health clubs" in the commercial Yellow Pages. It does not include private fitness centers, such as corporate fitness centers (approximately 4,000), college, university and school facilities (approxi- mately 4,000), or hotel, resort, spa and private club fitness centers (approximately 4,000). Nor does it include other facilities, such as military, penal or residential facilities, or Jewish Community Centers (JCCs), none of which are normally listed in the Yellow Pages as "health clubs."

From a commercial facility perspective, the two major components of the health club industry are the approximately 2,100 tax-exempt YMCAs and YWCAs and the approximately 12,000 tax-paying health and fitness centers. In the 15 years between January 1, 1982 and January 1, 1998, the number of U.S. fitness centers listed in the Yellow Pages grew from 6,211 to 14,100 (Figure 6.4). This repre- sents a total increase of 127%, or a compound annual growth rate of 5.62%.

Based upon a series of surveys conducted for IHRSA by American Sports Data, this report estimates that as of January 1, 1998, U.S. health club membership was distributed among U.S. facilities

Over the past 10 years, more than 80% of the membership growth in the health and fitness center industry has taken place in tax-paying facilities, including spas, resorts, private clubs, hotel fitness centers, residential fitness centers, commercial health clubs, and corporate fitness centers. These facilities have increased their market share from 60% on January 1, 1987 to 66% on January 1, 1997 (Figure 6.7 and Figure 6.8).

Based on current growth trajectories among the industry's various segments, and assuming a projected increase in its compound annual membership growth rate from 4.74% to 7.30%, total U.S. health club membership in the year 2010 should breakdown according to Figure 6.9:

Figure 6.9 U.S. membership in 2010 Commercial Health Clubs

Based on these projections, as well as current trends and continual reports on projected facility devel- opment, U.S. facility development over the decade 2000-2010 should approximate Figure 6.10:

Under this scenario, average fitness center membership per fitness facility would change in accordance with Figure 6.11:

Based on this scenario, health club membership growth, divided into its various industry segments, would approximate Figure 6.12: Figure 6.12